True...Lies (Part 1)

Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches.  ~W.I.E. Gates

  

Almost all published statistical data consist of fatal flaws that one can never be rid of. For example, bias is just one. For the purpose of the political election, we will use the current statistics as our example. Currently the Washington Post is showing a poll that has Mitt Romney leading by 47% to President Obamas 46%. So, how does bias play a role in this data? First off how was the poll conducted? On the bottom of the poll in small letters I read this;

Source: This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone July 5 to 8, 2012, among a random sample of 1,003 adults. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for the full sample and four points for the sample of 855 registered voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York. Results may not add to 100 percent because ''Other/don't know'' not included. Full results available at www.washingtonpost.com/polls. 

By looking at how the poll was conducted we can see where the bias affects the results. The poll consists of 1,003 adults whom were called on the phone in July. According to the census bureau taken in 2011, the population of the United States is 311,591,917. Lets assume that half are adults, that leaves us with 155,795,958.5 people to be represented by only 1,003. Another way to view this, 1 person surveyed represents the opinions of 155,329 people. That’s only part of it, depending on what time the calls were made will determine who may have answered the phone. Phone calls made in the middle of the day are more likely to be answered by people that are either working from home, are unemployed, or stay at home moms raising children.

Lets assume that they did call during the day, and lets further assume that it was stay at home moms that answered, they may be more apt to side with Romney because of the story of his wife Ann. That is only one small example of how a bias plays a role in statistics. Furthermore, it is impossible to eliminate all bias in a survey. If you change the time of the call, you may be largely eliminating the group of people that work at night, or stay at home moms, or even those that have evening actives. A factor that is unknown to the reader in this poll is where in the nation were these people called. The results would be different if the call was made only to urban location versus a farming community.

The truth is relative only to the data that is presented. The author of whatever version of the “truth” you are viewing could have manipulated the data as to gain a more favorable result.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/presidential-election-campaigning-sways-few/2012/07/09/gJQAJhANZW_graphic.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map